Betting on the Unknown: Smarter Choices in Uncertainty

 When it comes to making decisions under uncertainty, the biggest trap isn’t the lack of information—it’s the illusion of precision. Computer models may promise exactness, but more often than not, they offer false comfort and open the door to catastrophic mistakes, as history has shown in both insurance and investing. The wiser path is to resist two natural tendencies: discounting simply because of ambiguity, and assuming others know more just because you don’t. Instead, think critically about what’s truly knowable, and when odds look unusually favorable, don’t shy away from taking a calculated gamble. In short, uncertainty isn’t your enemy—misplaced confidence is.

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Silicon vs. Carbon: A Tale of Two Intelligences

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For Whom the Bot Toils: Navigating the Great Inequality of the Gen AI Era

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