The AI Party: Bubble or Lifeline?

 Will the AI bubble burst? Many are quick to draw parallels with Tulip Mania, but such comparisons miss a fundamental distinction. Tulips were an object of aesthetic desire, a transient expression of art and speculation. AI, by contrast, is a force of productivity—a technology that writes code, generates images and videos, and automates labor that requires only average intelligence. Even if AI never reaches the heights of a god-like superintelligence, its concrete value is undeniable.

We may have overestimated AI’s short-term benefits, but history suggests we are likely underestimating its long-term impact. Replacing routine human labor is just the beginning. The ripple effects will touch every corner of society: information synthesis, decision-making, education, and perhaps even governance. AI is not merely a tool; it is a lever capable of reshaping civilization.

At a geopolitical level, the AI race is, paradoxically, a solution to some of humanity’s most pressing dilemmas. Governments are deeply indebted. Democracies struggle to enforce fiscal discipline. At the time of writing, the U.S. government is still partially shut down. Societies desire better lives, yet resources are finite. Without productivity-enhancing technologies, the world edges closer to conflict—a World War Three lurking in the shadows of stagnation.

Warnings of an AI bubble are loud. Central banks, including the Bank of England, caution against the exuberance. But every government has an incentive to keep the party going. The alternative—the sudden stop of technological momentum—could unleash shocks that no economy or polity could withstand. In this sense, the AI bubble is not just an economic phenomenon; it is a collective strategy to buy time for humanity.

Optimism, in this context, is not naive. It is pragmatic. As the adage goes, pessimists are often intelligent, but optimists are the ones who profit—and sometimes, who shape the future. The AI party may be loud, chaotic, and even unsustainable. Yet within its noise lies a glimmer of possibility: a chance for humanity to redefine its path, to create a new equilibrium in global affairs, and to extend the limits of what civilization can achieve.

So, will the AI bubble burst? Perhaps. But the party itself—regardless of its eventual end—may be the most consequential experiment in human history.

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