Living in a Non-Linear World: Lessons from Sunlight, Investing, and Life

 For a long time, I assumed that daylight changes in a simple, linear way—that each day gains or loses roughly the same amount of sunlight. It turns out this intuition is wrong. The change is decidedly non-linear.

Around the winter and summer solstice, sunrise and sunset times barely move. Day after day, the clock seems almost frozen. Yet around the spring and autumn equinox, the change accelerates dramatically. A few days can shift daylight by many minutes.

This small astronomical fact offers a surprisingly powerful lens for understanding human nature, investing, and life itself.

Our Linear Bias in a Non-Linear Reality

Human beings are wired to think linearly. We expect steady progress, gradual decline, proportional cause and effect. Linear thinking feels safe because it is predictable. But the real world—biological, financial, and social—is anything but linear.

Daylight does not change evenly. Neither does life.

We do not age at a constant rate. There are cliffs rather than slopes. Many people feel this most clearly in middle age, when energy, recovery, and resilience suddenly decline faster than before—much like daylight slipping rapidly around the autumn equinox. For years, things feel stable. Then, within a relatively short window, the change becomes undeniable.

This is not failure. It is non-linearity.

Wealth Compounds the Same Way Sunlight Changes

Investment outcomes follow a similar pattern. Net worth rarely grows in a smooth, straight line. Most long-term returns come from a small number of winners, while the majority of investments contribute little—or even detract.

This is why experienced investors focus less on being right all the time and more on staying solvent. The key is not avoiding all losses, but avoiding losses that end the game.

In real estate development, designers do not calculate sunlight exposure for every single day of the year. Instead, they focus on the worst case—sunlight on the winter solstice. If a building meets requirements then, it will perform adequately the rest of the year.

Investing works the same way.
The critical question is not: How good will my portfolio look in favorable conditions?
But rather: Can I withstand the worst scenario?

If you can afford the losers, the winners will take care of themselves.

Why Averages Can Be Deadly

There is a famous saying:
A six-foot-tall man can drown in a river with an average depth of three feet.

Averages hide extremes. And extremes are what matter.

Markets do not kill portfolios during average years; they do so during crashes. Careers are not destroyed by ordinary stress, but by singular shocks. Health does not collapse from daily fatigue, but from sudden illness or accident.

Understanding non-linearity teaches humility. It reminds us that risk lives in the tails, not in the mean.

Staying in the Game Is the Real Victory

When viewed through this lens, life becomes less about optimization and more about survivability.

Avoiding disastrous situations matters more than chasing perfect outcomes. Whether it is a career setback, a financial loss, a health challenge, or an unexpected accident, the principle remains the same:

As long as you can withstand the shock, you can continue.

And as long as you stay in the game, time—like sunlight after the winter solstice—begins to work in your favor again.

Progress may feel slow at first. Almost invisible. But non-linear systems often reward patience suddenly and disproportionately.

The Quiet Wisdom of Non-Linear Thinking

The world does not move at a constant speed. It pauses, accelerates, and surprises us. Those who insist on linear expectations often feel confused or disappointed. Those who understand non-linearity design their lives differently:

  • They build buffers, not just forecasts

  • They prepare for winters, not just springs

  • They focus on resilience over brilliance

In nature, finance, and life, the goal is not to predict every change, but to endure the worst ones.

If you can do that, the good outcomes—like longer days after winter—will eventually arrive.

And when they do, they tend to arrive faster than expected.

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